The name of this Menu is always the name of the file that is currently in memory and focuses upon routines for entering or altering data. Most of the routines in this menu are the standard entering and correcting procedures. However, the Yardage Entries and Alter Power need further explanation.
Enter Yardage Stats
Entering yardage stats is purely optional and does not affect Pro Predictor's predictions. It is included only because I like to keep track of the teams’ offensive and defensive strengths and weaknesses as revealed by the yardage stats. I added this routine to PRO Predictor in 1989, so the yardage stats are not included for the years prior to 1989.
(Entering yardage is really not as difficult as it would seem. The options make it seem more complex than it is. You may wonder, “Why enter the total yards when it is already in the paper?” Well, as you’ll see the View Yardage Menu has more options for juggling the yardage stats than appear in the paper. Also, you will have a permanent record for later viewing, whereas newspaper are usually thrown away.)
You cannot enter the yardage stats before you enter the week’s scores. Therefore the Enter Yardage Stats are always for the week of the last scores entered. Once you have entered the yardage stats for that week, Enter Yardage Stats will be dimmed until you’ve entered the next week’s scores.
Unlike the scores, you do not have to enter these weekly. If you skip a few weeks, and then decide to enter the yards, you will be alerted that your entry must be the totals through that week.
The yardage stats include: the number of running plays, running yards, the number of pass attempts, passes completed, and passing yards. Most newspapers and football magazines such as PRO Football Weekly print game statistics which contain the needed yardage stats which you can use for entering the yards on a weekly basis. They also print the total yard stats weekly. You can use those to update the total yards.
If you’re entering the yardage weekly, you need enter only the offensive yardage for each team in each game. PRO Predictor knows that the visiting team’s offensive yard stats are the home team’s defensive yard stats and vice versa. The window for entering weekly yards groups the teams by games. For example, Miami/NY Jets or Cleveland/Pittsburgh. Therefore, when you enter Miami’s offensive yardage you are also entering the Jets’ defensive yardage.
If you’re entering total yards, you’ll have a different window. The groupings will be Cincinnati/Opponents or Indianapolis/Opponents. Enter the team’s offensive yardage in the team’s edit boxes and the defensive yardage in the Opponents’ edit boxes.
A further note: if you fail to enter the yardage for a week or two and still want to enter the stats as a weekly entry, you have the option of going back and entering them.
Alter Team Power
Power Ratings are the heart of Pro Predictor. How well it maintains each team’s Power Points determines how successful it will be in predicting. The Power Points are dynamic. They are based upon how well a team has done against its opponents and how strong those opponent are and are readjusted after each week’s scores have been entered. Each point of difference between two teams’ Power Points represents a point on the scoreboard.
At the beginning of the season, except for the *Super Bowl participants, each team’s power rating is the same as it was at the end of the previous season. PRO Predictor adjusts the power ratings as the season progresses. However, its adjustments are rather conservative, so it may take a few weeks before it has properly adjusted the power ratings.
You may feel that some teams have either improved or deteriorated considerably during the off-season and may want to adjust their power ratings right away. You have to enter the starting week and then the number of points to add or subtract. For the beginning of the season, indicate week 0. A range of 2 to 5 points is probably best.
You may also wish to change a team's power rating during the course of the season when a major injury occurs, especially to the starting quarterback. For an outstanding quarterback enter -5. You should also
add the points back when the injured player returns.
Should your changes prove incorrect, they may affect the prediction accuracy for a few weeks but PRO Predictor will eventually adjust them to where they should be.
*An analysis of Super Bowl winners since 1983 indicates that with the exception of San Francisco in 1989, Super Bowl winners have a rough time of it the next year. Although the losers fair better than the winners the following year, they seldom are as good as they were their Super Bowl year. So, through experimenting for better prediction results, PRO Predictor has determined that Super Bowl winners should be downgraded by 5 Power points and the losers by 3. If you think this year is an exception, change them back by altering the Power Point by +3 to the Super Bowl loser and +5 to the Super Bowl winner.
